For the first time since they won Super Bowl LIV on February 2, the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) return to Hard Rock Stadium in search of another victory, this time against the Miami Dolphins (8-4).
2020 has been quite a turnaround for Miami. After struggling to a 5-11 record last season, the Dolphins now find themselves in the thick of the division race for the AFC East crown.
The ‘Phins got to see rookie quarterback Tue Tagovailoa on full display last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Although he hasn’t played a whole lot in 2020, the former Alabama product has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 898 yards and sevens TDs in five starts.
Last week, Tagovailoa completed 26 of 39 throws for 296 yards and a touchdown in a win over Cincy. This week, the 22-year-old QB will look to build off that success by handing Kansas City its second loss of the season.
However, that would mean carving up a pass defense that is significantly better than the what Bengals have right now. Although the Chiefs’ secondary allowed Broncos QB Drew Lock to throw for a couple of scores, they also picked him off twice and allowed a 63.2 QBR.
In 2020, the Chiefs feature one of the top passing defenses, ranking 5th in average QBR allowed (84.6), and 8th in average yards per attempt allowed (6.9).
But when it comes to stopping the run, the struggles continue for Kansas City. Run defense has been their Achilles heel all season, and with four games left in the regular season, there a huge chance those issues could bleed into the postseason.
Denver running back Melvin Gordon was the latest back to have a field day on the Chiefs, rushing for 131 yards on 15 attempts, averaging 8.7 yards-per-carry.
This week, the Dolphins are hoping their running back, Myles Gaskin, will be next in line to have a big game against Kansas City. Gaskin is already coming off a huge performance last week, rushing for 90 yards on 21 carries, and will definitely be a threat Kansas City will need to gameplan for.
On offense, Patrick Mahomes and Co. are continuing to play at a high level but that didn’t keep Denver from being a major thorn in their side.
The Broncos defense did a good job keeping the Chiefs from reaching the end zone. Kansas City went 0 for 4 in the red zone and only converted 3 out of 10 third-down attempts. Although they did strike paydirt once, they also forced kicker Harrison Butker to kick five field goals.
Despite the defensive efforts, Patrick Mahomes still put up a nice stat line, however, throwing 318 yards, a TD, and finishing with a 95.6 QBR.
But no doubt K.C. had to grind to get that win, and it appears Miami might have to ingredients to have a chance for an upset. Especially, if they can keep Mahomes from getting into a rhythm.
Defensively, the Dolphins may pose a much tougher threat than the unit Mahomes faced last week. Although Miami ranks towards the bottom of the league when defending the deep ball, which is Mahomes’ specialty, the ‘Phins feature a prolific pass rush that Kansas City will need to be prepared for.
The Miami pass rush has accounted for 31 sacks and 83 QB hits, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Dolphins registered six sacks last week against Cincinnati and are confident they’ll be able to get after Mahomes.
That, of course, is easier said than done. Mahomes has only been brought to the turf 16 times, and only three other teams in the league have allowed fewer sacks.
The Chiefs and Dolphins square off in an unlikely matchup that wasn’t thought to be one of the top Week 14 games earlier in the year. While Miami poses as a major road test for Kansas City, they’ll still have their hands full trying to contain Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Dolphins 20
